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Expert
doubts new stats on two crimes
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‘Massive gap between what police record and reality’
HE CLAIMS made by Statistics South Africa that burglaries and house robberies could be between 2.5 and 15 times higher than those reported to police have been questioned by a senior crime researcher. Yesterday, the statistics body released its analysis of two Victims of Crime Surveys (VOCS), based on those two types of crime that occurred during January 2010 and December 2011. The analysis also indicated that fewer people were injured when they fought back during house robberies than those who didn’t – another claim which has had its authenticity questioned. While they may not be directly comparable figures – VOCS is based on incidents in calendar years while police stats run from April to March the following year – Statistician-General Pali Lehohla said the findings were still relevant. “There is a big gap between what police record and what people experience,” he said. From April 2010 to March 2012, the SAPS’s stats recorded 494 0000 housebreakings, while the VOCS suggested the total number was 1.3 million for the survey’s own period. The gap in reported and unreported house robberies was even greater, with police stats recording 34 000 incidents, while the VOCS suggested the figure was 536 000. If these figures were correct, it would mean people experienced 2.5 times more housebreakings and nearly 16 times more house robberies than had been reported to the police. Dr Johan Burger, a senior researcher from the Institute for Security Studies, said he had difficulty believing these stats. “If it were double that, it may have been acceptable, but it seems too high. It could be a definitional or methodological problem (with the survey).” There was also confusion over figures about injuries caused to victims of house robberies. “When you resist, in few incidents are there injuries," said Lehohla. The analysis showed victims of house robbery who resisted their criminals were injured on average 8 percentage points less than those who did not put up a fight. However, just two pages before the injury figures, Stats SA's report on the analysis states: "The odds of victims who resisted robbery and were injured are 3.3 times higher than those who did not resist robbery." Burger said the majority of research has found that not resisting robbers prevents injuries. "Your best chance of surviving a house robbery is to avoid resistance and to co-operate with the robbers. They often have no scruples, they will kill you if you resists," he said. The VOCS findings are based on a representative sample of surveys completed in 30 000 households across South Africa. The analysis of the surveys said the biggest reason people didn't report burglaries and robberies was that "the police could do nothing". This was folloed by opinions that the police would not follow it up; that it was not serious enough to report; the homeowner had solved it themselves and that it had been reported to other authorities. The City of Joburg had the fewest housebreaking reports during 2011 in the top six metropolitan areas, with 3.1 percent of households falling victim, while eThekwini had the most at 11.8 percent. Ekurhuleni had the most home robberies at 4.2 percent, while Joburg had the third highest rate of 1.7 percent of households falling victim to this crime. In Joburg, Stats SA said the hotspots for burglaries and house robberies were Rietfonton and Roodepoort. Nationally, housebreaking was the most commonly reported crime in the survey, affecting more than one in 20 households. Home robberies were reported by one in 67 homes. By Brendan Roane - brendan.roane@inl.co.za The Star 07/02/14 Early Edition |
Monday, March 3, 2014
Crimes of the South African Police Service
