ISS: 'Misleading' crime
statistics need inquiry
The
police significantly over-reported successes in crime fighting in the latest
set of crime statistics, says the Institute for Security Studies.
Police
significantly over-reported successes in crime fighting in the latest set of
crime statistics, the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) said on Wednesday,
and under-reported increases in serious crime – and that should be investigated
in a formal and independent inquiry.
Yes, it
is an election year, ISS researcher Gareth Newham conceded on Wednesday. And
yes, that may have played a role. But is that why the South African Police
Service (SAPS) significantly mis-reported crime statistics?
"We
don't know why it happened. We just know that it has happened, and that there
should be an inquiry so it doesn't happen again."
That call
is unlikely to be welcomed by national police commissioner Riah
Phiyega (who stands accused of undermining an investigation into one of her
subordinates), or by
the ruling party, which has claimed part responsibility for what has been
painted as a continuation in the last year of a long-standing trend of a
reduction in crime.
But such
claims are based on an amateurish calculation error, the ISS said during a
seminar on the national crime
statistics for the 2012 to 2013 year, released just over a month ago. Instead of a reduction in
crime, the ISS said, the last reported year showed the first uptick in crime
generally, and in serious crimes especially, in many years. And that is cause
for concern.
Difference
in numbers
The results of the error vary between crime categories and areas. On a provincial level, it is most pronounced in the Western Cape, where the difference between police-reported numbers and those calculated by the ISS are greater than 9%. In that province SAPS numbers showed year-on-year reductions in common assault, residential burglary and motor theft. In reality, the ISS said, those crimes actually increased.
The results of the error vary between crime categories and areas. On a provincial level, it is most pronounced in the Western Cape, where the difference between police-reported numbers and those calculated by the ISS are greater than 9%. In that province SAPS numbers showed year-on-year reductions in common assault, residential burglary and motor theft. In reality, the ISS said, those crimes actually increased.
"For
example, the official crime statistics say that murder in the Western Cape only
increased by 0.5%," the ISS said in a statement. "In fact, murder in
that province has increased by 10.1%. Similarly, the official statistics say
that attempted murder in Gauteng went down by 5.5% when in fact this crime
increased by 1.8%."
The
police dismissed the ISS recalculations as a mere difference in interpretation.
But Newham said the ISS calculations matched very closely with statistics
prepared by US analysts and published as international informaiton firm IHS
Crime Index, while SAPS numbers were at variance with the IHS statistics. Last
week, Police Minister Nathi Mthethwa trumpeted the IHS numbers in a statement.
"It
is gratifying that an internationally recognised, credible, and globally
respected institution has now affirmed the fact that crime is decreasing in
South Africa," Mthethwa said.
That
leaves the government in a position where it can either claim independent
verification of the long-term trend of crime reduction, or a continuing
reduction in the last year of reporting – but can not plausibly claim both.
While the
ISS does not dispute the total numbers of crimes reported by the police, it
says the calculation of the ratio of crimes per citizen went badly awry.
Types of
crimes
Such ratios are crucial in measuring the risk of certain types of crimes, including rape and murder, in a country with a constantly growing population. Should the number of murders increase more slowly than the population grows, for example, the likelihood of being murdered decreases even when more murders take place.
Such ratios are crucial in measuring the risk of certain types of crimes, including rape and murder, in a country with a constantly growing population. Should the number of murders increase more slowly than the population grows, for example, the likelihood of being murdered decreases even when more murders take place.
In
reporting such ratios for 2012/13, the ISS said, the SAPS used population
numbers as determined by the national census conducted in 2011. Because the
census is considered a definitive count, it also affects population estimates
for previous years. But the police did not re-calculate the ratios for the
2011/12 reporting period based on the more accurate population numbers.
Instead, it effectively used two very different sets of population figures to
calculate the numbers of murders, rapes and other crimes per 100 000 South
Africans.
"If
you want to use the ratios, which is correct, then you have to use the same
basis for comparison," said Chris de Kock, a retired police major general
who oversaw statistics within the SAPS for many years. "You can't just
jump between [population estimates] and build in a benefit of 2% nationally and
9% in the Western Cape."
De Kock
would not be drawn on whether he suspected a simple – if enormous – mistake in
the preparation of data, or whether there may have been a political motive behind
a conspiracy to manipulate the numbers. But the response, or lack thereof, from
the police was concerning, he said.
"The
day after the release [of the annual statistics], which was seven weeks ago,
both the ISS and myself reacted on that. On that weekend, there was quite a lot
of reporting on it in newspapers ... I can tell you if I was there and read
that in the newspapers and realised I had made a mistake, it would really have
been immediately rectified ... But the reaction from the police so far is not
to rectify. The reaction so far is 'we have a way to work out the ratios, and a
so-called analyst has his way; what is the problem?'. There are not two ways,
there is one right way."
Phillip de Wet is an associate
editor at the Mail & Guardian
